Originally published: 1998
399 pages | Chapter
29
THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
Daniel Yergin & Joseph Stanislaw |
The Commanding Heights is Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw's
exhaustive global political/economic survey assessing why the free market is the
solution to failed collectivist top-down economic policies known as
"command economies." Collectivism saw its apogee primarily in Soviet
(greater Russia) and Chinese totalitarianism during the latter half of the
twentieth century. This parched scheme was also the template for control of the
Soviet Union's satellites in Europe and the client states of both in the Third
World. The collectivist model matured under Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union
and Mao Zedong in China, but it was guided through its adolescence in the early
years of the twentieth century by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.
Lenin (1870-1924) was a brutal dictator and the leader
of the 1917 Russian Revolution. He believed as much in murder and terror as any
revolutionary ever had; he was also an economist, but only out of necessity.
Lenin understood what he needed to do-make newly communist Russia work in
real-world terms-but he had not enough time and less expertise to achieve that
goal because there was just too much to do. His grasp of at least a portion of
the fundamentals of economic thinking was sure, but his understanding of how to
build a viable command economy was far less so. There was no model to
follow, and, of course, the fact that a command economy could not successfully
be built by anyone was a reality that escaped his notice in the aftermath of the
revolution. In other words, Lenin made the classic political mistake-he thought
attaining power was the difficult step when it was the actuality of governing
that was impossible.
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Lenin suffered from the twentieth century's worst case
of Enlightenment rationalism. He believed he could intellectually muscle his way
through any problem. His successor, Joseph Stalin-less educated and less skilled
at either governance or economics-was the century's premier megalomaniac.
Between the two of them they caused the deaths of twenty, or fifty, or
seventy-five million people-no one will ever know the real number. That fact
alone is why these men and their theories must be kept in mind-decade upon
decade.
After his take-over of the machinery of government in
the middle of World War I (and his immediate withdrawal of Russia from the
Allied war effort by means of a separate peace with Germany), Lenin's health
deteriorated fairly quickly (although he had not yet reached 50) so that by the
early 1920s he was ailing and frail. Aware of the short time he had left, he
became desperate to save the revolution before its economic failings caused a
counter-revolution. His brand of socialism-total control of both property and
production-had not been economically successful in the early years after the
Revolution and the Russian marketplace was in shambles. Lenin tried to reverse
this course by introducing what he termed the New Economic Policy in 1921. This
program brought back a small degree of capitalism in the form of petty trade and
private agriculture. Because his grand vision of state control was not
compatible with these modest but desperate measures, Lenin was criticized by his
fanatical followers. He made an excuse for his approach by explaining
that the government and the Communist Party would always control the
"commanding heights," the high ground of economic power. Lower levels
of the economy did not require, at least for the time being, the imposition of
puristic socialism; they merely had to work. Lenin the Pragmatic.
Lenin's failure to make socialism viable was just one
in a long string of collectivist fiascoes. Nevertheless, statist economic
measures retained their political appeal, even in the United States, long after
socialism had been thoroughly discredited philosophically and practically. U.S.
president Richard Nixon, standing atop Washington's commanding heights in 1970,
instituted wage and price controls when no emergency or threat to the country
existed and when the economy was, with little question, healthy. Government's
economic intervention in this case was widely thought to be good, even
necessary. In reality, it was nothing more than an example of how warped
economic and, especially, political theory had become because of the siren song
of socialism's progeny: state welfarism.
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Twenty years later (and seventy after Lenin's initial
failures), when communism exposed itself as a futile philosophy amidst the ruins
of the Soviet Union, the free market was again on the rise as the antidote to
the exorbitant fiscal and psychological costs of collectivist economic control.
Capitalism and its market economy had governments shedding public businesses
like liberals abandoning a Baptist revival meeting.
As Yergin and Stanislaw showed in their wide-ranging
political/economic survey, none of this happened by accident. Although liberal
Western politicians had long been preaching government control and
paternalism-mostly because their pronouncements made them feel good and got them
re-elected, not because they understood the issues-serious economists had been
saying since the turn of the twentieth century that collectivism and socialism
would not and could not work.
As the political cognoscenti realized that an
ever-expanding welfare state was as unaffordable intellectually,
psychologically, and economically as socialism was, the public began to
understand that government was not the answer to every question. Simultaneously,
the knowledge of those at government's center proved inferior in competing
against the combined knowledge of all participants in the market. In the U.S.,
economic liberty brought prosperity; elsewhere government controls brought
economic stagnation. At this point the pendulum began to swing back toward
freedom in economic matters.
Yergin and Stanislaw explain where many of the free
market's mid-twentieth-century economic problems began, with John Maynard
Keynes. Keynes was the grand defender of the "prime the pump" theory
of economic stability. He held that if governments would spend money to get an
economy going (money those governments did not have, which was to be taken from
taxpayers and/or printed out of thin air in classic inflationary fashion), the
machinery of commerce would ultimately thrive on its own through the multiplier
effect founded in the infusion of fresh dollars or credit.
There were several problems with this theory: it was
wrong, in the first place, because money taken from the private sector in the
form of taxes is that much less money in the hands of the individuals who
actually make the economy work; thus government priming the pump actually slows
an economy. Also, the multiplier effect of government employment/spending is
miniscule compared with what those dollars do in the open market. Government
spending, whether a one-time event to build a bridge or a persistent event such
as providing a service
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(welfare, Medicaid) must be continually (negatively) funded entirely through
taxation or borrowing. In the private sector the business person spends money
and then makes money, over and over, continually creating profits at each step,
all of which, to the government's benefit, are taxable. Finally, money taken by
the government and then redistributed back into private enterprise suffers from the "friction"
of government intervention because a substantial portion of the money taken in
is used up in administrative costs, increased red tape, and expansion of the
number of government employees and employee benefits (federal employees are the
best paid and best protected workers in America), all of which diminish
government effectiveness and efficiency, and is therefore money that is mostly
lost to the economy.
Ultimately the Keynesian program was untenable because
it led to increased administrative intervention as politicians and bureaucrats
decided exactly how to prime the pump. In other words, government didn't just
throw money at the economy, or make credit more easily available; government
decided that if it was "its" money that was going to do the work, then
government itself would determine how the funds would be spent. Politicians and
administrators began to believe they had an expertise they cannot and never will
have, an expertise that only the market's invisible hand enjoys. Of course, the
tendency toward corruption brought about through politically controlled distribution
further defeated any chance that real assistance would be effected.
Keynes made a comment that would explain the eventual
demise of his own philosophy:
Ideas are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world
is ruled by little else. . . . Sooner or later it is ideas, not vested
interests,
which are dangerous for good or evil.
It was the renewed understanding, after World War II, of why government
must allow the market to work and why government was inadequate to order the
economy that dealt the death blow to socialistic theory in all its guises.
(However, socialistic goals are manifestly and unfortunately not
dead.)
Although some economists-notably those at the
University of Chicago, before, during, and after World War II-correctly
appreciated the market's imperatives, these academics could not effect
political change; they could only offer economic principles, coupled with a
sound
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and useful understanding of human nature. This is the second theme
treated at length in The Commanding Heights. As the authors explain,
the importance of political leaders and leadership is so fundamental that
pragmatic governing is not possible without both.
This systemic realization was a watershed moment in
modern political/economic practices. Through the influence of liberal
intellectuals it had become gospel that large economies could not run
themselves. But it had become even more readily apparent in the real world
that politicians should not run them either, to put it bluntly, because they
simply didn't know what they were doing. This is true for a simple reason;
economic interaction is far, far too complex to be ruled by anyone or
anything. Additionally, because government officials approach economic
matters from a political perspective, their goals become political goals,
which do not necessarily match private goals or public good. Thus, the
system could not and would not respond appropriately or effectively to
political intervention. When politicians and economists alike grasped that
there is a psychology, a human element, as well as a narrow economic method
to making a free economy work, progress away from fear of the free market
began-and the pendulum's journey back toward the center accelerated.
The authors note, with regard to the intention of
government as it crafted mid-twentieth-century economic policy:
[In matters of] economic regulation . . . from the New Deal onward,
market imperfections and failures became a dominating rationale.
In other words, government intervention to fix anything that was
perceived to be broken became not just the watchword, it became the
raison d'être of administrative activity. Fixing aberrations that found
their way to the front page was clearly more politically profitable than
pontificating about the value of government abstention on a big picture
scale. Yet, almost none of the legislated regulations or bureaucratic
intrusions worked to make things better. In most instances they complicated
and made worse whatever minor irregularity had previously existed, and which
would have most likely self-corrected in any event.
Hard economic realities experienced up to and
including the twentieth century helped tip the scales dramatically toward
free-market capitalism in the short twenty years from 1970 to 1990. Inflation had been a
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vicious malefactor for centuries, destroying whole
economies, even nations, in matters of years; wise observers who realized
the devastation inflation had caused in Germany after World War I didn't
want that to happen again. Across the world's economic landscape at
mid-century the fiscal burden of liberal tax and spending policies and of
government control was becoming overwhelming, with no end in sight. Yet in
almost all these nations there was little social progress as a result of
these programs. There were just as many poor, backward, bankrupt nations and
people as there had ever been, and just as many wealthy and corrupt
dictators who sat atop these economic disasters.
Yergin and Stanislaw note as well that the
regulatory burden, which was designed to protect the people from themselves,
had become suspect for its rigidity and incapacity-particularly in
collectivist societies. During this period governments began to understand
both the role and the limits of regulatory effectiveness. None of this
happened without the help of political figures and private sector economists
who wished to effect free-market rationalism as the controlled economic
measures of the collectivists proved not just ineffective, but destructive.
As a result of these hard economic lessons, and the example of the free
market economies that flourished after World War II, socialist governments
began to collapse because of the internal factors and mechanisms by which
they were supposed to operate.
The turnaround started small, most prominently in
England in the 1980s under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and grew into a
global avalanche of change by the turn of the twenty-first century. In 1950
socialism was the ascendant form of government worldwide; by 1990 it had
been buried. The gap between socialism's goals and its performance-and then
its ultimate demise-spurred Yergin and Stanislaw's investigations. They
engage in an encyclopedic overview of the world's economies; their
examination of the leaders and the individual circumstances of each region
or country follow what transpired in an effort to quantify those actions and
comprehensions that worked and disassemble those that did not. This
treatise, essentially an historical textbook without the pedantic touch of
academic scolds, is striking by virtue of its details and the authors' skill
at tying the facts, figures, and history together.
The book is divided into chapters that correspond
to the economic points to be made and the history of their
"discovery" and implementation. The authors observe that perhaps
America's most valuable contribution to the world's economies was not only
its example of
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free-market capitalism but its ability to change on the fly and to recognize the difference between
procedure and substance. For example, in the U.S. the effects of the wartime
planned economy, necessitated by the demands of World War II production
needs, were not viewed as universally beneficial by war's end. In fact, as
the authors note:
Even liberals wanted, in the aftermath of the war, "to find a role for
government that would allow it to manage the economy without managing
the institutions of the economy." (Quoting Alan Brinkley in The
End of
Reform [1996])
Managed capitalism had produced mightily when
the war came along-that fact was not lost on the Depression-era American
public as it initially was in Europe. Our economic explosion after the war,
however (when the economy was allowed to find its own level and measure
without governmental guidance), ensured that domestic eyes would easily
comprehend how much more the economy could do when freed from regulation and
oversight. It was also thought that because of America's material success
the public would not be easily blinded by melioristic equalitarian and
socialistic paradigms that were in intellectual vogue in Europe at that
time. And for a period, it was not.
The European reaction was different-governments
there were still grounded in naive Enlightenment-era ideals of perfect
social organization and distribution. The physical and psychological
devastation that remained after the war ended reinforced equalitarian
impulses; thus government control grew. The contrary but expected economic
results obtained on either side of the Atlantic-based on the differences in
the respective economic principles used as blueprints-were easy for the
authors to dissect.
As they did with Europe and the United States,
Yergin and Stanislaw explore each instance of economic foolishness and
genius experienced around the globe, primarily since the end of World War
II. Their reach is one of the values of this effort; the reader doesn't have
to wonder, well, OK, that's what happened in the U.S. and France, but what
about Argentina or Indonesia or Rhodesia? All of the major players and
regions are examined, then the whole is fitted together in practical form.
The sweep of their survey is daunting because there are so many
interconnected pieces and players, but the result leaves the reader with
many comprehensions-and, as surely, many questions about the future.
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Those seeking to still better understand the past
century's socio-political movements that went hand in glove with fresh
economic forces and philosophies, should consult Paul Johnson's Modern
Times (Chapter 22). This companion volume to The Commanding
Heights will enable readers to fit many of the twentieth century's
puzzle pieces into their proper places. Johnson's comprehensive compendium
fills in the political and historical details germane to Yergin and
Stanislaw's economically oriented study. After reading both volumes, the
complementary scope and value of each book becomes apparent.
The authors of The Commanding Heights
recognize that the battle over economic sanity will never be ended. In the
expression of George Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State, Treasury, and
Labor, markets are "relentless," and never-ending competition is
sometimes harsh and often wearing. People not infrequently want respite, or
protection, even from just having to work with diligence. There thus
occasionally arises a clamor for government to do something for us or
something to a competitor. It is the human condition that makes reality so
difficult. Yergin and Stanislaw are not reluctant to point out this reality.
Ultimately, they are optimistic; their confidence is
based on thirty centuries of already achieved results. Today, in spite of
some discontent with insecurity (often magnified by the media), we know for
certain that government is neither the sole answer nor even the antidote to
life's difficulties. The free market's possibilities, the potential for good
and bad, and multiple chances to be the creators of our own economic destiny
still make more sense than the certainty of socialism's negative and
demeaning government dole.
Finally, in their treatise, Yergin and Stanislaw go
to the root of some of society's most deeply ingrained frailties. They see
corruption (intellectual, economic, social, and political) and inflation as
the two most destructive forces for all economies and all societies. They
also aver that government does have a role, but as investigator and arbiter
of the myriad social and economic forces extant, not as supervisor. Their
ultimate message is that government is not the court of last resort. The
people's success will be determined by their willingness to do what is
required of them-to be vigilant and steadfast, and free, and to be rewarded
both personally and nationally for their efforts, as so many people and
nations were after World War II.
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About the Authors
Daniel Yergin was born in 1947 in Los Angeles. He graduated from Yale
University in 1968 and thereafter received his Ph.D. from Cambridge
University (England) in international relations. He won the Pulitzer Prize
for non-fiction in 1992 as co-author of The Prize, a definitive study
of the worldwide oil industry. He was the founding chair of Cambridge Energy
Research Associates which, as its name suggests, studies and gives advice on
energy issues. He is vice-chair of Global Decisions Group, a consulting firm
that provides economic and political risk analysis for its clients.
Joseph Stanislaw is a graduate of Harvard
University where he obtained his undergraduate degree. He received his Ph.D.
from Edinburgh University (Scotland) and he is president of Cambridge
Energy. Previously he taught at Cambridge University and for a time was
senior economist for the European Union's Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). He is a student of energy and other
markets, and does consulting work in those fields.
Available through:
Touchstone Books, Div. of Simon & Schuster
Rockefeller Center
1230 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10020
www.simonsays.com
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